Proof: Baptists cause Tornados!
Pat Robertson and Statistics: Do Unnatural Acts Cause Natural Disasters?
Pat Robertson, founder of the
Christian Coalition, recently warned
Orlando,
Florida, that it was courting
natural disaster by allowing gay pride flags to be flown along its streets.
"A condition like this will bring about ...
earthquakes,
tornadoes, and possibly a
meteor,"
Robertson said.
Apparently he was referring to his belief that the presence of openly gay people incurs divine wrath and that God acts through geological and
meteorological events to destroy municipalities that permit gay people the same civil liberties as others. (
Robertson also warned
Orlando about terrorist bombs, suggesting the possibility that
God may also employ terrorists.)
Before Pat and his Christian cronies get too carried away promulgating the idea that natural disasters are prompted by
people who displease God, they should take a hard look at the data.
Take
tornadoes. Every state (except
Alaska) has them-- some only one or two a year, dozens in others.
Gay people are in every state (even
Alaska). According to Pat's
hypothesis, there should be more gay people in states that have more
tornadoes. But are there? Nope. In fact, there's no correlation at all between the number of gay folks (as estimated by the number of
gay political organizations, support groups, bookstores,
radio programs, and circuit parties) and the
annual tornado count < = .04, p = .78 for you statisticians). So much for the "God hates gays" theory.
God seems almost neutral on the subject of sexual orientation. I say "almost" because if we look at the density of gay groups
relative to the population as a whole, there is a small but
statistically significant (p 05) correlation with
the occurrence of tornadoes. And it's a negative correlation < = -.28).
For those of you who haven't used
statistics since 1973, that means that a
high concentration of gay organizations actually protects against tornadoes. A state with the population of, say, Alabama could avert two tornadoes a year merely by doubling the number of gay organizations in the state. (Tough choice for Alabama's civil defense strategists.)
Although
God may not care about
sexual orientation, the same cannot be said for
religious affiliation. If the underlying tenet of
Pat's postulate is true--that God wipes out offensive folks via natural disasters - then perhaps we can find some evidence of who's on
God's hit list.
Jews are off the hook here: there's no correlation between numbers of
Jews and frequency of tornadoes. Ditto for
Catholics. But when it comes to
Protestants, there's a highly significant correlation of .71.
This means that fully half the
state-to-state variation in tornado frequency can be accounted for by the presence of
Protestants. And the chance that this association is merely
coincidental is only one in 10,000.
Protestants, of course, come in many flavors-- we were able to find statistics for
Lutherans,
Methodists,
Baptists, and
Others.
Lutherans don't seem to be a problem--no correlation with tornadoes. There's a modest correlation < = .52, p = .0001) between
Methodists and tornadoes.
But
Baptists and Others share the prize: both groups show a definite
correlation with tornado frequency < = .68, p = .0001). This means that
Texas could cut its average of 139 tornadoes per year in half by sending a few hundred thousand
Baptists elsewhere (Alaska maybe?).
What, you are probably asking yourself, about gay
Protestants? An examination of the numbers of
gay religious groups (mostly Protestant) reveals no significant relationship with
tornadoes.
Perhaps even Protestants are less repugnant to God if they're gay.
And that brings up another point--the futility of trying to save the world by getting
gay people to accept
Jesus. It looks from our numbers as if the
frequency of natural disasters might be more effectively reduced by encouraging
Protestants to be gay.
Gay people have been falsely
blamed for disasters ever since
Sodom was destroyed by
fire and brimstone. (
We have been unable to find any statistics on disasters involving brimstone).
According to a reliable source, the destruction of Sodom was indeed an act of
God. (see Genesis 19:13) Its destruction was
perpetrated because the citizens thereof were, according to the same source (see Ezekiel 16:49-50) "
arrogant,
overfed and unconcerned (and) did not help the poor and
needy"--not because they were
gay.
Now
Pat would have us believe that gays are the cause of
tornadoes (as well as
earthquakes,
meteors, and even
terrorist bombs) in utter disregard for evidence showing that Baptists are much more likely to cause them.
I say "Kudos!" to
Orlando. Despite Robertson's warning that Orlando is "right in the way of some serious hurricanes" (hardly a revelation), note that it was not struck by the very destructive Hurricane Andrew a few years ago. And amid the recent
conflagrations (that's fires) in central Florida, which occurred just after Pat sounded his alarm, Orlando was spared. Keep those
flags waving!
As any
statistician will tell you, of course, correlation doesn't prove
causation.
Protestants causing tornadoes by angering God isn't the only explanation for these data. It could be that Baptists and Other Protestants purposely flock to states that have lots of
tornadoes (no, we haven't checked for a correlation between
IQ and religious affiliation).
But if Pat and his
Christian crew insist that natural disasters are brought on by people who
offend God, let the data show who those people are.
-
Janis Walworth July 16, 1998 -
Sources:
Tornado Occurrence by State, 1962-1991 1990 Churches and
Church Membership; Population by State, 1990 US Census;
Gay &
Lesbian Political Organizations, Support Groups, and Religious Groups from Gayellow Pages, National Edition, 1987.
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