Also known as optimistic bias, unrealistic optimism is the tendency to believe that positive events
are more expected to happen to oneself than others, and negative events are more expected to happen to others than oneself. The
concept was first introduced in 1980 by psychologist Weinstein and ever since its launch, the theory has received
strong empirical support. People’s
tendency to believe that the positive outcomes are more expected to happen to
themselves is relevant to almost any case where there is perceived beneficial
outcome or underestimated threat. It becomes more significant in high-risk
situations.
For example optimistic bias can affect the overconfident manager of a company (even leader of nations
in some historical cases) who believes his strategic decision will turn
beneficial for the whole company (or country), as well as a teenager who thinks
that she will not get pregnant with one incident of unsafe sex. Optimistic
bias in some cases can induce people to under-invest in preventative care and other risk reducing behaviors.