I claim this nodespace early as I'm going to make a prediction here:)
If the death penalty is going to be an issue in George W. Bush's first term, Timothy McVeigh's death will be the reason. McVeigh would be the first federally executed criminal in nearly 40 years. The state's penal systems aren't even gonna get a chance at Tim. If the (ahem) pro-life forces have enough mmph to raise a stink about his execution, the death penalty will become a big issue again.
The death penalty as an issue has hurt some American politicians in the past, see Mike Dukakis, but I can't name anyone in a presidential election it's helped.