We all know
that these "industry pundits
" are mostly wrong
with their forecasts
. And it is also a known fact
that in the end, we all know better
Nevertheless, here is my all time favorite list of bad technology forecasts sorted by date:
- "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
- "The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
- "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
--H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.
- "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
- "The commercial market for computers will never exceed a half-dozen in the US.
-- Howard Aiken, 1945
- "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.
-- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
- "I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
-- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
- "But what ... is it good for?"
-- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
- "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
-- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.,1977
- "640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981