Did I mention that all of these are a bit of gonzo journalism?
Why are we talking about Vermont? Vermont is one of the smallest and least populous states in the nation, and also one of the most liberal leaning. When it comes to the movers and shakers in Republican politics, Vermont is literally at the bottom of the list, perhaps next to Hawaii. So why was I staring at my screen, watching numbers under a percent jiggle back and forth on The New York Times election update page? Because tonight, for the first time in the primary race, Nikki Haley won a state, by a plurality, less than 3000 votes, and about 4% of the vote. (A quick note here: in the Washington, D.C primary, which I didn't cover (not even knowing it was happening until the next day), Haley also won.)
As it had in Virginia, the conventional wisdom spoke of Rockefeller Republicans hiding in the hills of Vermont, ready to come out to rally around Haley. And what was conceptually true in Virginia became actually true in Vermont---although it took hours to ascertain the results, and they are far from a landslide. But, a victory is a victory.
It should be noted that Haley' two victories so far... Washington, D.C. and Vermont---are hardly the type of places that give someone a lot of Republican street cred. It should also be noted that Vermont was her only victory of the night, (barring incoming surprises from Alaska).
What this means for the rest of the race depends a lot on Nikki Haley's mentality, and bank account, at this point. There is a chance that Haley could find another few states with similar demographics to Vermont, but stitching together DC, Vermont, Rhode Island and Hawaii is not exactly a road to the nomination. Again, we really don't know---other than saying, there certainly is a part of the Republican electorate that does not like Trump. And beyond that, I do not know what decisions Nikki Haley will make in the coming days.