Ever since George W. Bush became President of the United States, and having watched his cabinet assembly, I've had a suspicion. That suspicion is that one of Dubya's main plans is to start another Gulf War, perhaps with the explicit plan to remove Saddam Hussein (BTW, I hate it when the press and the government--both Bush and Clinton administrations--refer to him just as "Saddam". He may be the US's hated enemy, but he has a surname, and it's considered polite in world diplomacy to refer to a world leader by a title and last name, or at least a full name. We don't call the British prime minister "Tony", do we?)

Evidence? I have none, but that's always the best part of a conspiracy theory. I have the following things to think of, though:

Like I said, it's not much to go on, but I think it's a possibility. To that end, I'm starting the Gulf War II betting pool. When do you think George W. Bush will start Gulf War II?

My prediction: November, 2003. Bush Sr.'s problem was that he peaked too soon. Having the war fully 18 months before his reelection was too early. One thing I will give the younger Bush credit for is the ability to see something like this. Since his administration will be orchestrating the war anyway, they should be able to time this then. You don't want it any later, though, because then it will get in the way of campaigning--but it could go on for 3 or 4 months without too much hassle.

Like I said, I may be wrong, it's pretty shaky to begin with, but I'd love to see what other people think.


Feb 16th, 2001: Okay, let me just say this: I WAS KIDDING! With that, I still contend that W. is peaking WAY too soon here--unless the plan is to build to a gradual crescendo by then, and this is merely a metered step into whipping up the decade-old anti-Saddam Hussein frenzy into a wash of patriotism. I don't think that he needs 2.5 years for that, but you never know.
September 21, 2002: Here we are, a year after September 11, 2001, and as some have pointed out, I'm eerily prophetic. The latest reports say Bush the Second will be attacking in February 2003.

I don't know what Saddam is doing, I have no intelligence on weapons of mass destruction, but I think we all need to look at the motives of the President and those around him. Clearly the real reason we'd be attacking Iraq is to right a past wrong, to finish what daddy started. A determination on whether or not it's a good idea has to be made with that in mind, not some rhetoric about WMDs.


Feb 28th, 2003: Okay, we've made it through February without war. It may be November at this rate--if we have to wait much past April, it's too hot, and we don't do it then. The world is rising against war, and Dubya may be seeing the world through the glasses of Revelations. And apparently it's an Arab custom to refer to leaders by their first names to avoid deification (whether Americans or Brits should follow suit is another issue.)

Let's hope rational thought prevails and the world is not plunged into darkness, okay?


March 19, 2003: Well, I lost the betting pool. The war has begun. I guess I was right in general, however Can I just suggest that if a non-political person like myself saw this coming 2 years ago, before September 11th and all that, that others should have too? I suspect that many in the US think this is a great idea. You're wrong. I had the privilege of seeing Walter Cronkite speak just last night, and he spoke of a "dark period" for the world, based on Bush's fundamental incompetence in foreign policy. We're going to be paying for this war, for one way or another, for decades. It was sorta funny when I thought of it, but now it just makes me sick. Still, what the hey, it's my highest rep writeup.

Oh, and by the way, George H. W. Bush doesn't even think this is a good idea (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-605441,00.html). The US media don't tell you about that, though.

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